Last week’s shopping package
Yesterday, the economic calendar was easy, starting from Switzerland’s KOF economic barometer, which showed good progress this month, followed by Spain’s consumer inflation CPI (Consumer Price Index). Inflation in Spain rose to 5.8% this month, while German GDP showed a 0.2% drop in economic activity for Q4. Mostly forex majors traded sideways, with a slight bias towards USD bulls in the evening. Crude oil edged lower as Chinese and US stocks turned bearish.
This week’s market expectations
Today began with China’s manufacturing and services reports, both sectors are expected to show contraction this month. A flashy Eurozone GDP reading is expected at -0.1%, but after seeing yesterday’s German Q4 GDP numbers, the downside could be bigger. Later, November’s GDP figures are expected to show a 0.1% expansion in Canada, while US CB consumer confidence is expected to show a modest improvement this month. New Zealand’s unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.3% later tonight.
The price action was slow yesterday, but enough to pick up a few trades. We have opened multiple trade signals in forex, commodities and cryptocurrencies, with only one missing signal. We’re long in Ethereum as cryptos turn lower, but we’ve had several other winning trades and our long-sold oil tick is moving closer to our profit target.
Profit booking is on. Euro/Dollar
The 200 SMA (purple) has acted as support on the H1 chart, but EUR/USD has been bearish this month despite the slowdown. The price dipped below this moving average last week but bounced back up and we decided to open a profit closed buy signal yesterday when EUR/USD jumped.
EUR/USD – 60 minute chart
The rest is short WTI Oil
Crude Oil remains weak on the daily chart as US dollar sentiment remains weak. The price was higher at the beginning of this month, but the 100 SMA (green) again turned into resistance and rejected the price. Last week we decided to open a long sell signal and took a profit of over 3 cents as the bearish trend resumed.
WTI Oil – Daily Chart
Crypto currency update
Cryptocurrencies stood out in January, with majors like Ethereum and Bitcoin gaining 50% off their lows, while smaller ones like Solana and Fanto gained 250%. But we saw a bearish reversal yesterday, so they didn’t close the month like they played it.
Bitcoin Breaking the 50 SMA
Bitcoin was bullish and completed three upward waves, although, these movements have been decreasing, the last one will take place at the end of the week. The 50 SMA (yellow) is acting as support on the H4 chart, but was broken yesterday, so we’ll see if the bullish trend resumes.
BTC/USD – 240 minute chart
ETHEREUM It slips below the 50 SMA.
Ethereum has been showing buying pressure since early January and we have seen some good buying momentum which sent the price above $1,600. The moving averages have been doing a good job of acting as support on the H4 chart and the latest bounce at the 100 SMA (green) came after the pullback. But yesterday we saw a break in that moving average.